Japan Election: LDP Seats Margin of Victory?

Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by less than 130 seats?

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Deadline · UTC

Feb 8, 2026

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election (e.g. if LDP controls 290 and CRA controls 70 as a result of the election, the difference would be 220). The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election. If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins” If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).