Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.

24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$40.1M

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds100%

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

Yes100%Polymarket estimate

No0%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Dec 31, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel and Hezbollah both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two parties that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hezbollah military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both parties. A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. If only one party (e.g. only Israel, or only Hezbollah) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.