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Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$86.2K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds100%
Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?
Gaza100%Polymarket estimate
Ukraine0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Dec 31, 2025
- Gaza bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Gaza" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Ukraine" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine between August 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, prior to an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. If an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve, regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. Regarding the Israel x Hamas ceasefire, an announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed-upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. If neither ceasefire is reached by the end of this market, or if both ceasefires are reached at the same time, this market will resolve to 50-50. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both parties involved in each conflict; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will qualify.