
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas between February 4, and March 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Israel and/or Hamas, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Retrieved 10/3/2026, 9:37:48 PM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.