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Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
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Choose a market to analyze 2 open questions · Evidence required
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$4.1M
Liquidity$13.1K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
8 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
December 31Accepting ordersMarket odds6%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
Yes6%Polymarket estimate
No94%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $13.1K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 5.0¢ / 7.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
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Resolution rules
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.