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Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu vote share?
Foretrace AI research
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24h volume$125.3
Total volume$2.1K
Liquidity$32.5K
Event end date · UTCOct 27, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<5%Accepting ordersMarket odds23.5%
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Yes23.5%Polymarket estimate
No76.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $20.8K
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 27, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 22.0¢ / 25.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yisrael Beiteinu party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yisrael Beiteinu's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yisrael Beiteinu passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Yisrael Beiteinu contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yisrael Beiteinu merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).