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Israel Election: Shas vote share?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 5 open questions · Evidence required
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$1.4K
Liquidity$24.1K
Event end date · UTCOct 27, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<6%Accepting ordersMarket odds32.5%
Will Shas win less than 6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Yes32.5%Polymarket estimate
No67.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $925.7
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 27, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 27.0¢ / 38.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).