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Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
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Choose a market to analyze 5 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$7.4K
Total volume$302.6K
Liquidity$240.8K
Event end date · UTCOct 28, 2026
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Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<20Accepting ordersMarket odds26.8%
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes26.8%Polymarket estimate
No73.2%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $49.9K
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 28, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 26.6¢ / 27.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).