Israel military action against Iraq before December?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$211.3K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCNov 30, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Israel military action against Iraq before December?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Nov 30, 2024
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iraqi soil, airspace, or maritime territory between November 11, 2024 12:00 PM ET, and November 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iraqi soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be Israeli government confirmation or reporting confirmed by authentic video and photo evidence including satellite imagery. However an overwhelming consensus of media reporting may also be used.