Iran response to Israel by Friday?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$35.5K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCApr 5, 2024

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Iran response to Israel by Friday?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Apr 3, 2024
Yes bid / ask: 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

On April 1, 2024, Israel bombed an Iranian consulate in Syria, killing a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps. Iran promised a "decisive response". This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an Iranian response to Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria by April 5, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A response by Iran refers to action(s) carried out by Iran that are explicitly in response to Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria, which may include strikes, cyber attacks, sanctions, etc. Only responses by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market even if explicitly claimed by the Iranian government. The resolution source will be official sources from the Iranian government, however a consensus of credible sources will also be used.