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Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$266.3K
Liquidity$25.8K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Accepting ordersMarket odds3.1%
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Yes3.1%Polymarket estimate
No97%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $25.8K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 2.6¢ / 3.5¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.