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Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2023, ET. The market will resolve to "No" if there is no credible confirmation of Iran possessing a nuclear weapon by this date.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 7:08:58 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.
A research report should explain the odds, challenge the thesis, and show what could change the answer.
This event is available to explore. Closed markets do not generate new forecasts.