Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Foretrace AI research

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Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.

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24h volume$700.2

Total volume$1.9M

Liquidity$35.3K

Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2026

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Awaiting resolutionMarket odds13.5%

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes13.5%Polymarket estimate

No86.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $35.3K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 13.0¢ / 14.0¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

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This market is closed or awaiting resolution.

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.