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Iowa Caucus 2nd place?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volume$0
Total volume$3.3M
Liquidity$0
Event end date · UTCJan 15, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Donald TrumpClosedMarket odds0%
Will Trump place 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Caucus?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $126.2K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 15, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president Donald J. Trump wins the second greatest number of votes in the 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses take place, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie, this market will resolve to the candidate whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.