Incarcerated U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before April?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$100.3K

LiquidityUnavailable

Event end date · UTCMar 31, 2025

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

ClosedMarket odds0%

Incarcerated U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before April?

Yes0%Polymarket estimate

No100%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: Unavailable
Deadline · UTC: Mar 31, 2025
Yes bid / ask: — / 0.1¢
Trading fees: Not flagged by provider

Closed market · historical data

This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.

How research works

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual holding U.S. citizenship, who is in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to El Salvadoran for the purpose of incarceration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify an incarcerated U.S. citizen must be transferred to El Salvador, and physically enter the terrestrial or territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify. Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.