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Iceland volcanic eruption by Dec 31?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volume$0
Total volume$10.6K
Liquidity$0
Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2023
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
1 marketThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
ClosedMarket odds100%
Iceland volcanic eruption by Dec 31?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $0
- Deadline · UTC
- Dec 31, 2023
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
On Nov 11, 2023 Iceland declared a state of emergency after an intense string of earthquakes linked to a possible future volcanic eruption. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland has a volcanic eruption by December 31, 11:59 PM Iceland Time (UTC + 0). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be a consensus of media reporting as to whether an eruption occurred.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 2:45:58 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.