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Iceland Legislative Election
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$307.6K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCNov 30, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Independence (D)ClosedMarket odds0%
Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 30, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.6¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
Parliamentary elections will be held in Iceland on November 30, 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Independence Party (D, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn) wins the most seats in the Icelandic Parliament a result of the next Icelandic parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Independence Party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve solely based off the first official announcement of the election results from the Icelandic Government, specifically the National Electoral Commission (Landskjörstjórn, https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn).