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Iceland EU Referendum: Turnout
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$2.4K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCAug 29, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
10 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<45%ClosedMarket odds0%
Will turnout in the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum be under 45%?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Aug 29, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.