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How many votes will Mike Johnson get on first ballot?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$436.9K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCJan 3, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
11 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
210 or fewerClosedMarket odds0%
210 or fewer votes for Mike Johnson to be Speaker on first ballot?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 3, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
The election for the 2025 Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on January 3, 2025, on the opening day of the 119th United States Congress. This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 210 or fewer votes for Mike Johnson in the first ballot cast for US Speaker of the House. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a person other than Mike Johnson is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, the "210 or less" market will resolve to "Yes". If Mike Johnson is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, the "220 or more" market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.