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State of the Union # of viewers?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$44.1K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCFeb 24, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
7 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<35MClosedMarket odds100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union have less than 35M viewers?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Feb 24, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of viewers (Persons 2+, average total viewers) Nielsen reports the 2026 State of the Union address as having. If this event is cancelled or otherwise does not occur by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported number of viewers falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be information from Nielsen, specifically their Persons 2+ statistic. A consensus of credible reporting on Nielsen's Persons 2+ statistic for the 2026 State of the Union address may also be used. If the 2026 State of the Union address takes place, and Nielsen does not provide viewership information for the broadcast of the address within 10 calendar days, another credible resolution for the 2026 State of the Union viewership source may be chosen.