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How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 6 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$691.5
Total volume$35.2K
Liquidity$59K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
≤5Accepting ordersMarket odds1.3%
Will there be 5 or fewer UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
Yes1.3%Polymarket estimate
No98.8%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $11.1K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.6¢ / 1.9¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026. Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).