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How many states will 538 call correctly?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$10.7K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCNov 5, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
9 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
50ClosedMarket odds0%
Will 538 call all 50 states correctly?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Not specified
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 1.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final election forecast by FiveThirtyEight correctly predicts the winning candidate in all 50 U.S. states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The forecast’s prediction for each state will be based on the candidate with the highest probability of winning in that state. If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast has two candidates tied as most likely for a state (there is no favorite), that state will not count as a as a state called correctly. This market may only resolve once all of Polymarket's presidential election state markets have been resolved. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the probability of winning each U.S. state.