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How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
24h volume$103.2
Total volume$519.9K
Liquidity$15.3K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
8 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<5Accepting orders35.5%
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Yes35.5%
No64.5%
- Liquidity
- $978.8
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 31.0¢ / 40.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.