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How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 28?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Choose a market to analyze 5 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$604.7
Total volume$15.5K
Liquidity$44.5K
Event end date · UTCOct 4, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<170Accepting ordersMarket odds6.5%
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?
Yes6.5%Polymarket estimate
No93.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $1.1K
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 4, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 3.0¢ / 10.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.