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How many seats will the Ensemble coalition win in the French election?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$38K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCJul 7, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<50ClosedMarket odds0%
Will Ensemble win less than 50 seats in the French election?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jul 7, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ensemble (Together for the Republic, Ensemble pour la République) coalition controls less than 50 seats in the National Assembly as a result of the 2024 French legislative election scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the 2024 French legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this coalition/party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the coalition/party which comes first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Ensemble coalition in the National Assembly as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior. Any coalitions made with other parties or elected deputies after the results of the election are reported will not be considered for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information published through the website of the French Ministry of the Interior (https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/), however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.