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How many "Squad" members will lose their primaries?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$384.2K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCSep 3, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
4 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
0ClosedMarket odds0%
Will none of The Squad lose their primaries?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Sep 3, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
"The Squad" refers to an informal group of eight Democratic members of the US House of Representatives known for progressive views. All are running for reelection in the 2024 US general election. This market will resolve to "Yes" if no listed members of "The Squad" lose their 2024 primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The list of members in The Squad are as follows: -Greg Casar (TX-35, won his primary on March 5) -Summer Lee (PA-12, primary on April 23) -Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14, primary on June 25) -Jamaal Bowman (NY-16, primary on June 25) -Cori Bush (MO-1, primary on August 6) -Rashida Tlaib (MI-12, primary on August 6) -Ilhan Omar (MN-5, primary on August 13) -Ayanna Pressley (MA-7, primary on September 3) This market may immediately resolve to "No" if any squad member loses. The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from each relevant state's Democratic Primary, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.