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How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
Foretrace AI research
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Choose a market to analyze 6 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$50.1
Total volume$1.2M
Liquidity$6.4K
Event end date · UTCApr 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
0Accepting ordersMarket odds36%
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
Yes36%Polymarket estimate
No64%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $448.6
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 21.0¢ / 51.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.