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How many Jan 6th protestors will Trump pardon in his first 100 days?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$8.2M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCApr 29, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
7 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<250ClosedMarket odds0%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Apr 29, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if less than 250 people receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 20, and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, for crimes related to the January 6 Capitol attack. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that Trump will pardon individuals will not count. Only pardons, commutations, or reprieves actually issued on that date will count toward a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for whether any protestor is pardoned will be official information from the US government (e.g. https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-recipients), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.