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How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
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24h volume$77.5
Total volume$24K
Liquidity$168.3K
Event end date · UTCNov 4, 2026
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Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
8 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<43Accepting ordersMarket odds0.3%
Will Democrats win fewer than 43 House seats in California in the 2026 midterm elections?
Yes0.3%Polymarket estimate
No99.7%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $19.5K
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 4, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.1¢ / 0.5¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election. All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.