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How many Federal employees will accept buyout?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$2.5M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCFeb 28, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
11 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<50kClosedMarket odds0%
Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Feb 28, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
The Trump administration announced Tuesday that it is offering deferred resignations to all federal employees who opt to leave their jobs by February 6 (see: https://www.opm.gov/fork) This market will resolve according to the number of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the number is reported as a percentage of the Federal workforce, with no reporting of the actual number by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will use the most exact unrounded percentage reported out of 3,010,000 to calculate the number of deferred resignations (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001). If the Trump Administration does not publish the number or percentage of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer by February 28, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.