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How many days will the federal government be shut down in 2025?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$2.3M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCDec 31, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
5 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
No shutdownClosedMarket odds0%
Will the federal government not be shut down in 2025?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Dec 31, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve according to how many days the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM. Days are counted based on notices checked at 10:00 AM ET each day. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown, this will count; however, announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. If there are multiple government shutdowns during the relevant period, this market only applies to the first shutdown, as the market will resolve after the end of the first shutdown. Notices of emergency furloughs or impacted government operations count toward the shutdown days. If no shutdown occurs during the period, this market will resolve to "No shutdown". The resolution source for this market will be the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).