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How many acres will Los Angeles wildfires burn by Sunday?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$218.4K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCJan 12, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
7 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
30-40kClosedMarket odds0%
Will LA wildfires burn 30-40k acres by Sunday?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 12, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- — / 0.1¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the sum of all wildfires in Los Angeles county burn between 30,000 (inclusive) and 40,000 (exclusive) acres by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” This market refers to all wildfires in Los Angeles county, over 10 acres, which began between January 7, 2025, and this market's resolution date. This currently includes the Palisades, Eaton, Hurst, Lidia, Sunset, and Woodley fires, however any new fires recorded by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection will also count. The resolution source is official updates from https://www.fire.ca.gov/. If the website for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.