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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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24h volume$16
Total volume$398.2
Liquidity$5.8K
Event end date · UTCOct 12, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
7 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
0Accepting ordersMarket odds47.5%
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Yes47.5%Polymarket estimate
No52.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $1.2K
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 12, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 47.0¢ / 48.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.