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How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
24h volume$2.3K
Total volume$4.2K
Liquidity$1.6K
Event end date · UTCNov 1, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
9 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Below 5.18%Accepting orders69.5%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.18% in October?
Yes69.5%
No30.5%
- Liquidity
- $488.3
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 1, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 62.0¢ / 77.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).