
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's inaugural address is less than 8 minutes in length. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump does not give an inauguration speech by January 21, 6:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during his inaugural address until the moment he finishes his inaugural address. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address. The resolution source will be the live video of the event.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's inaugural address is between 8 minutes (inclusive) and 10 minutes (exclusive) in length. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump does not give an inauguration speech by January 21, 6:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during his inaugural address until the moment he finishes his inaugural address. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address. The resolution source will be the live video of the event.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's inaugural address is between 10 minutes (inclusive) and 12 minutes (exclusive) in length. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump does not give an inauguration speech by January 21, 6:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during his inaugural address until the moment he finishes his inaugural address. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address. The resolution source will be the live video of the event.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's inaugural address is between 12 minutes (inclusive) and 14 minutes (exclusive) in length. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump does not give an inauguration speech by January 21, 6:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during his inaugural address until the moment he finishes his inaugural address. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address. The resolution source will be the live video of the event.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's inaugural address is between 14 minutes (inclusive) and 16 minutes (exclusive) in length. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump does not give an inauguration speech by January 21, 6:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during his inaugural address until the moment he finishes his inaugural address. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address. The resolution source will be the live video of the event.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's inaugural address is between 16 minutes (inclusive) and 18 minutes (exclusive) in length. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump does not give an inauguration speech by January 21, 6:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during his inaugural address until the moment he finishes his inaugural address. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address. The resolution source will be the live video of the event.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's inaugural address is between 18 minutes (inclusive) and 20 minutes (exclusive) in length. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump does not give an inauguration speech by January 21, 6:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during his inaugural address until the moment he finishes his inaugural address. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address. The resolution source will be the live video of the event.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's inaugural address is 20 minutes or more in length. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump does not give an inauguration speech by January 21, 6:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during his inaugural address until the moment he finishes his inaugural address. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address. The resolution source will be the live video of the event.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 9:45:48 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.