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How long will SBF's sentence be?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$1.3M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCMar 28, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
7 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<5 yearsClosedMarket odds0%
SBF sentence less than 5 years?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Mar 28, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SBF is sentenced to fewer than 5 years in prison for the charges for which he is presently on trial (as of March 14) by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding SBF's present trial. This market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence - e.g. if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. For this market's resolution, time SBF has already served will not be subtracted from the total amount of time he is sentenced for. If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the top bracket (<5). The primary resolution source will be official information from the US court system, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.