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Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory
Foretrace AI research
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Choose a market to analyze 9 open questions · Evidence required
24h volume$245
Total volume$5.4K
Liquidity$95.3K
Event end date · UTCOct 8, 2026
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Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
9 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
Labour 15%+Accepting ordersMarket odds34%
Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?
Yes34%Polymarket estimate
No66%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $26.5K
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 8, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 33.0¢ / 35.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).