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Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?
Foretrace AI research
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24h volume$530.5
Total volume$10.5K
Liquidity$43.2K
Event end date · UTCOct 8, 2026
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Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<30%Accepting ordersMarket odds8%
Will the Labour Party candidate win less than 30% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
Yes8%Polymarket estimate
No92%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $1.7K
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 8, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 1.0¢ / 15.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).