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Highest 24-hour rainfall in Bangkok, October 4-10?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.
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24h volume$32
Total volume$196.8
Liquidity$208.3
Event end date · UTCOct 18, 2026
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
4 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<20mmAccepting ordersMarket odds37.5%
Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be less than 20mm?
Yes37.5%Polymarket estimate
No62.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $63.5
- Deadline · UTC
- Oct 18, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 2.0¢ / 73.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Initial research coverage focuses on politics and the economy.
Check AI research coverageResolution rules
This market will resolve according to the highest 24-hour rainfall amount recorded at the BANGKOK METROPOLIS station between October 4 and October 10, 2026, according to the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). The resolution source for this market will be the TMD, specifically the highest of the values in the "24 hr." column under "Rainfall Amount (mm.)" for the "BANGKOK METROPOLIS" row in the Daily Weather Summary reports dated October 4, 2026 through October 10, 2026, at the https://www.tmd.go.th/en/climate/daily link. Those seven report dates are the governing set, whatever measurement window the TMD applies to each one. The report dated October 11, 2026 will not be considered. Only the "BANGKOK METROPOLIS" row governs. Other Bangkok-area stations, including BANGKOK PORT (KLONG TOEI), will not be considered. If that row does not appear in a given report, or shows "- No data -", that report date will be excluded and the highest value among the remaining report dates will be used. A value of "No Rain" or "Trace" will be treated as 0mm. Each bracket includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, so a value of exactly 20.0mm, 50.0mm or 100.0mm resolves the higher of the two adjacent brackets to "Yes". If none of the seven report dates yields a value for the "BANGKOK METROPOLIS" row by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "<20mm" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market measures rainfall to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to rainfall recorded after data is published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.