
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Pete Hegseth is photographed or videotaped drinking alcohol between April 21 and May 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic, not the result of artificial intelligence or video editing. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Hegseth, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 4:01:49 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.