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Greta Thunberg arrested by...?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
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Choose a market to analyze 1 open question · Evidence required
24h volume$33.3
Total volume$73K
Liquidity$235.4
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
2 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
December 31Accepting ordersMarket odds73.8%
Greta Thunberg arrested by December 31?
Yes73.8%Polymarket estimate
No26.3%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $234
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 68.0¢ / 79.5¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.