
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a confidence vote is held in the German Bundestag between November 6 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as a confidence vote occurs, the process of which is outlined in Article 68 of the German Basic Law (Grundgesetz). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Retrieved 10/4/2026, 4:03:26 AM UTC. Provider data is cached for up to 60 seconds. The upstream quote timestamp can be older.