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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
Foretrace AI research
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24h volume$8.7K
Total volume$2.8M
Liquidity$131.5K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
4 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
December 31, 2026Accepting ordersMarket odds8.5%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
Yes8.5%Polymarket estimate
No91.5%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $76K
- Deadline · UTC
- Jan 1, 2027
- Yes bid / ask
- 8.0¢ / 9.0¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.