Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round? | Foretrace

PoliticsOpen event

Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?

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24h volumeUnavailable

Total volume$968.8

Liquidity$644.8

Event end date · UTCOct 10, 2026

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Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

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Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?Accepting ordersMarket odds30%

Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?

Yes30%Polymarket estimate

No70%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $644.8
Deadline · UTC: Oct 10, 2026
Yes bid / ask: 17.0¢ / 43.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held. If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.