French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place

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Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

Yes6%Polymarket estimate

No94%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $15.2K
Deadline · UTC: Oct 10, 2026
Yes bid / ask: 4.0¢ / 8.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Will Olivier Faure finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

Yes73.5%Polymarket estimate

No26.5%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $1.5K
Deadline · UTC: Oct 10, 2026
Yes bid / ask: 68.0¢ / 79.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.

Will Philippe Brun finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

Yes3.5%Polymarket estimate

No96.6%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $6K
Deadline · UTC: Oct 10, 2026
Yes bid / ask: 0.3¢ / 6.7¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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See a probability estimate with uncertainty, the evidence for and against it, and a conditional decision at the available price.

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French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place

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Outcomes & resolution rules

Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Resolution rules

Will Olivier Faure finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Philippe Brun finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Jérôme Guedj finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Emmanuel Maurel finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate A finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate B finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate C finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate D finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate E finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate F finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate G finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate H finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate I finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate J finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate K finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate L finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate M finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate N finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate O finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate P finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate Q finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate R finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate S finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?

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Will Candidate T finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?