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Fetterman leaves the Democrats by...?
Foretrace AI research
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Choose a market to analyze 2 eligible questions · Evidence required
24h volume$481.9
Total volume$23.1K
Liquidity$28.6K
Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
3 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
November 2, 2026Accepting ordersMarket odds1.9%
Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?
Yes1.9%Polymarket estimate
No98.1%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- $13.2K
- Deadline · UTC
- Nov 3, 2026
- Yes bid / ask
- 1.2¢ / 2.6¢
- Trading fees
- Enabled · verify on Polymarket
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice. Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.