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How much spending will DOGE cut in first 6 months?
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$2.9M
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCJun 30, 2025
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
6 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
<$250bClosedMarket odds100%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?
Yes100%Polymarket estimate
No0%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Jun 30, 2025
- Yes bid / ask
- 99.9¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by less than $250,000,000,000 between the Q4 2024 report and the Q2 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q2 2025 value. The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q2 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made. This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).