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Fed Interest Rates: May 2024
Foretrace AI research
Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.
Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent outcome or pass decision for each open market.
View a sample AI report No open markets in this event. Closed markets retain historical data.
24h volumeUnavailable
Total volume$900.6K
LiquidityUnavailable
Event end date · UTCMay 1, 2024
Price history
Market probabilityLoading price history…
Polymarket · UTC
Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.
Outcomes & resolution rules
4 marketsThese are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.
25+ bps increaseClosedMarket odds0%
Fed raises interest rates by 25+ bps after 2024 May meeting?
Yes0%Polymarket estimate
No100%Polymarket estimate
- Liquidity
- Unavailable
- Deadline · UTC
- Apr 30, 2024
- Yes bid / ask
- 0.0¢ / 100.0¢
- Trading fees
- Not flagged by provider
Closed market · historical data
This market is closed. Its historical data remains available.
How research worksResolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's April/May 2024 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased by 25 or more basis points above the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 30 - May 1, 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April/May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by May 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.