EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

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24h volume$336.9

Total volume$4.4K

Liquidity$11K

Event end date · UTCJan 1, 2027

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Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?Accepting ordersMarket odds25%

EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

Yes25%Polymarket estimate

No75%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $11K
Deadline · UTC: Jan 1, 2027
Yes bid / ask: 23.0¢ / 27.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.