Ethereum Up or Down on October 4?

Foretrace AI research

Understand the odds. Examine the reasoning.

Polymarket shows market prices. Foretrace adds AI probability estimates, opposing evidence and a price-dependent Yes, No or pass decision on eligible markets.

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24h volume$964.6

Total volume$964.6

Liquidity$7.5K

Event end date · UTCOct 4, 2026

Price history

Market probability

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Polymarket · UTC

Sampled market observations, not AI forecasts. Lines connect available observations. Legend values are current provider quotes; chart points may be older.

Outcomes & resolution rules

1 market

These are market-implied probabilities, not AI forecasts. A displayed quote may differ from the price available for your order.

Ethereum Up or Down on October 4?Accepting ordersMarket odds49%

Ethereum Up or Down on October 4?

Up49%Polymarket estimate

Down51%Polymarket estimate

Liquidity: $7.5K
Deadline · UTC: Oct 4, 2026
Up bid / ask: 48.0¢ / 50.0¢
Trading fees: Enabled · verify on Polymarket

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 3 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 4 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 3 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 4 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.